Hong Kong Focus: A Precedent-Setting Election, Or Prelude To A Nightmare?

by Suzanne Pepper

The biggest handicap for Hong Kong’s democracy movement has been its lack of precedents and institutional memories.

The colonial tradition was all about keeping democracy at bay until the very end, when it was only possible to cobble together a mix of Western-style goals and mainland communist underpinnings.  That left everyone with nothing to guide the way forward except a new untested Basic Law constitution and its vague one-country-two-systems outline, designed to last for 50 years from 1997.  Everyone on both sides of the political divide, in other words, can only learn-by-doing as they propel themselves along toward the Basic Law’s undefined goals of a government elected by universal suffrage and integration with the mainland system in whatever form it may exist by 2047.  Under the circumstances, last Sunday’s Chief Executive Election laid down two important improvised markers that will be difficult to erase in future elections because the experience of this one will be set if not in stone then at least in the memories of all who participated.   Read more →

The Bo Drama

By Calanthia Mei

 

Welcome to the biggest political drama in Chinese politics since 1989, if you choose not to call it a “farce.”

Here’s how Bo Xilai, the rising political star, evolved from a “victimizer” to a “victim”: Mr. Bo, 62, was a strong contender for a seat on the Politburo Standing Committee, the ruling party’s highest decision-making body, in the upcoming leadership transition. As the Chongqing Communist Party chief, Bo built his national reputation on his charisma and stewardship of the mega-city in southwest China, where he promoted high-profile retro-Maoist culture through “singing the red” campaigns, marshaled “smashing the black” crusades against organized crime, called “smashing the black” prosecutions, and was surrounded sometimes with rumors of unethical methods.

Bo’s fall of grace, in Act I of this political drama, started from an unusually striking public scandal led by his police chief, Wang Lijun, a close ally of Bo’s who last month fled to the U.S. consulate in Chengdu, possibly seeking political asylum. Wang was taken for “vacation-style therapy” and has not been seen since. On March 15, the official news agency Xinhua abruptly announced Bo’s removal from Chongqing, a dramatic move evaluated by many as a definitive sign that Bo’s political ascendancy is at an end—“Bo Xilai is sacked,” as Western media portrayed.    Read more →

China Faces Political Uncertainty in 2012

by Yawei Liu

2012 is a big political year for China because a new generation of leadership will move into key government and party positions.  This new generation will be making all decisions for the world largest country in the next 10 years.  Jiang Zemin became China’s top leader in 1989 and did not totally leave the leadership position until 2004 when he retired as chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC).  Hu Jintao became general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in November 2002, president of the People’s Republic in 2003 and the CMC chairman in 2004, respectively.  Xi Jinping, who just visited the United States, is expected to take over the first two positions in October 2012 and March 2013, respectively.  It is not clear at this point if Hu Jintao desires to “mentor” Xi from his chairman position at the CMC for a period of time.

This upcoming change is being watched closely around the world. The sheer size of China’s economy is so large that any policy change due to leadership reshuffling may have a global rippling effect.  Furthermore, this will only be the second time for a peaceful transfer of power to take place in the history of the CCP, if indeed the transfer happens as it has been arranged. The current Chinese leadership wants the world to view China as open, prosperous and stable and to see the Chinese government as responsible, accountable and legitimate.  The entire government was mobilized at the beginning of the year to do everything necessary to ensure a successful convening of the 18^th CCP National Congress in October, when the power handover will take place.   Read more →

Two Sessions Trivialities

by Ren Yang

China’s legislators and political advisers started their annual sessions in early March, during which time a wide range of issues have been discussed under the backdrop of complicated circumstances both at home and abroad.

This year’s sessions of the Top Legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), the Advisory Body, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) are of particular significance to China as they are being held just ahead of the 18th National Congress of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC). The CPC congress, slated for the second half of this year, will bring with it a power transition for the country’s new generation of leaders. The attention paid to the meetings and the meeting participants by the media and online netizens has been striking.

“Is this a People’s Congress meeting or a luxury brand meeting?”

The annual gathering of China’s parliament is traditionally a chance for delegates to show off their finery, but this year some have found their designer goods under scrutiny from a web-savvy public.

Images on China’s Weibos (popular microblogs similar to Twitter) of delegates in expensive clothes have created a storm of criticism in a country where millions still live on less than $1 a day.

“Can those delegates really represent the people … has our country really become rich?” posted one user next to a photograph of Li Xiaolin, daughter of former Premier Li Peng, in a pink Emilio Pucci suit said to cost nearly $2,000 US dollars.   Read more →

END OF THE ROAD FOR THE ELECTION COMMITTEE?

by Suzanne Pepper

During the past 20 years, local democracy activists have used every argument they could think of to make the case for “genuine” universal suffrage elections.  In response, people liked to joke that Beijing would never allow elections unless it could guarantee beforehand who would win.  This logic inspired the intricacies of the Chief Executive Election Committee, now with 1,200 members, which was designed in such a way as to make a pro-democracy candidate’s victory impossible.

The only problem, from Beijing’s perspective, is that officials there cannot actually mandate which pro-establishment candidate should win because the communist party is not yet in open control here.  What’s more, Beijing is pledged to an ongoing course of reform that anticipates “public acceptability” (Jan. 4  post).  This is a new criterion added recently, without fanfare or explanation, presumably because Beijing has now learned its lesson:  Hong Kongers can be very troublesome when provoked and since hard-line mainland-style political security laws have not yet been introduced here, the city can become difficult to govern at times like now, when public expectations do not mesh with government performance.  Elections may be designed to misrepresent but the mass media and mass protests are still routinely invoked as the last lines of defense.   Read more →

The Trend of Reform in China: Political Reform?

by Yiming Qu                                    

In 2011, the world witnessed a democratic uprising in the Middle East, an escalating European debt crisis and increasing the doubts about the future of democracy in Europe. In the debate over whether the world is becoming more or less democratic, a new model seems to appeal to the developing world with its unique characteristics: “One-party rule, an eclectic approach to free markets and a big role for state enterprise being among its commonly identified ingredients” (The Economist). This is labeled as the “China Model” due to its unprecedented level of success in China. Looking back over the 34 years of China’s reform, the country has achieved considerable economic development, with an average annual GDP growth rate at 9.9% from 1979 to 2009 (Data source: National Bureau of Statistics of China). While modernization theory optimistically supports a causation relationship between economic development and democratic political transition, the road to democratization in China is not steady and, due to China’s overriding policy focus on “economic construction,” political reform usually appears to be postponed on the agenda.   Read more →

China’s Vice President Xi Jinping Visits U.S.

by Ren Yang

China’s Vice President Xi Jinping began his visit to the U.S. on February 14, 2012, Valentine’s Day in the western countries. Everyone has been looking forward to see how the United States and China celebrate their “love.”

A Mysterious Figure?

Remember when Hu Jintao became China’s President? A joke was circulated online mocking George W. Bush’s political ignorance. It went like this:

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice tells the President, “Hu will become the President of China.”

Bush: I don’t know who is going to be the president of China. You tell me.

Rice: Hu is, Mr. President.

Bush: Who is? I am asking you!   Read more →

Libya, Syria, and China’s Role in the International Community

by Yiming Qu

On February 4, 2012, China defended its veto of the United Nations Security Council resolution calling for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to step down and the Syrian troops to withdraw from major cities across the country. The resolution, from China’s perspective, was “an effort to promote ‘regime change’ in Syria through ‘external force’ in violation of international norms.” The rationale behind China’s decision is to prevent another “Libyan-like” western military intervention as well as forced ‘regime change.’ The international norm China is trying to defend is the principle of non-intervention. This action has revived the debate over China’s foreign policy orientation: intervention or non-intervention.

A year ago, on February 26, 2011, China voted in favor of the UN proposal of sanctions on Libya, including an arms embargo, the freezing of assets of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, a referral of the situation to the International Criminal Court (ICC), and a travel ban on Qaddafi and other senior figures in his administration. Subsequently, in the March vote on air strikes against Libya at the United Nations Security Council, China abstained from vetoing authorization of the strikes. This step was viewed as a shift of China’s foreign policy after having focused on a policy of non-intervention and non-interference for almost 60 years.   Read more →

A CHIEF EXECUTIVE ELECTION: The Preliminaries

by Suzanne Pepper

With the November District Councils election now an unhappy memory for Hong Kong democrats, attention has re-focused on the next (decidedly un-democratic) phase of its long drawn out 2011/12 election cycle.   Here there are no jokes about “small benefits and favors” or snakes and cakes for grassroots voters since the key players at this level are not grassroots and benefits don’t need to be discussed.    In polite formal discourse the people who count are known as stake-holders, otherwise referred to as the power elite, tycoons, social notables, and so on.   Read more →

Suzanne Pepper’s Hong Kong Focus: The Civic Party Under Siege

by Suzanne Pepper

Of all the post-mortems conducted after the November 6^th District Councils election, none have been more painful to watch than those done on the Civic Party.  Painful not because party members fared so badly because they really didn’t, except in contrast to expectations that they naturally did nothing to discourage among candidates and supporters beforehand.   Read more →