By: Jason Kyriakides
On January 6, 2010, the United States issued a revised proposal to sell Patriot missiles to Taiwan that has been years in the making.? The proposal comes as part of the U.S. pledged responsibility to Taiwan under the?Taiwan Relations Act of April 10, 1978, and the?Joint Communiqué of August 17, 1982, which acknowledges that the United States will sell weapons to Taiwan with the eventual goal of ending weapons sales completely.
The proposal was originally made in October 2008 under the Bush administration for $6.5 billion in aircraft, weapons designs, submarines and other equipment – the largest American weapons sale ever to Taiwan.? A revised edition was announced in December 2009, notably removing the sale of aircraft and submarines at the request of the Chinese government.? This most recent revision on January 6 added a contract with Lockheed Martin Corporation to produce Patriot ballistic missiles for Taiwan.? The sale is scheduled to take place early this spring.
The updated proposal comes at a critical period in relations between mainland China, Taiwan and the United States.? Mainland China and Taiwan have been celebrating unparalleled closeness in relations – expanding business ties, tourism and cross-Strait travel – and recently closed a deal to expand the number of weekly cross-Strait commercial airline flights by 44, to nearly 350.? The United States has similarly been deepening ties with the mainland, seeking loans to help fund its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and aid in its economic recovery.
Because this political triangle is in such a key stage, the potential for the proposal to impact relations has been highlighted.? As the proposal developed in late December 2009 and early January 2010, the Chinese government warned the United States that selling weapons to Taiwan – which the mainland considers a breakaway province and not a legitimate independent state – would damage Sino-U.S. relations.
In response to the U.S. proposal, China’s Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry?issued statements nearly every day from January 5 to 11, stating that the proposal violated China’s “core interests and grave concerns,” and “harmed China’s sovereignty and security interests.”? Xinhua News backed the ministries with an editorial claiming that the United States was in violation of its promises in the three Joint Communiqués, and that the sale would endanger peace “at the moment that the cross-Straits relations have embarked on a path of peaceful development.”
Likely as a response to the proposal, China?successfully tested a missile-intercept system on January 11.? According to the Defense Ministry, the system is purely for defensive purposes in accordance with China’s ongoing strategy of defensive military development.? Still, the test was a significant tit-for-tat display of military power that lent power to China’s claim that it would not tolerate outside interference in its “core issues.”
Despite these strong words and flashy displays, this is a familiar story in Sino-U.S. relations.? Since 1995, when relations between mainland China, Taiwan and the United States reached a fevered pitch and U.S. aircraft carriers were deployed to the Taiwan Strait, China has been “operating very much at the psychological or political, rather than military, level of conflict.”? This is?according to The International Crisis Group, which has been studying relations in the Taiwan Strait and the prospects for peace since 2002.? The mainland realizes there is not an immediate danger of separation,?as supported by recent public opinion polls in Taiwan; at the same time, public pressure on the Chinese government to take a bolder stance internationally makes it domestically rewarding for the Chinese government to put on this kind of military display.
Furthermore, despite the continued sale of weapons to Taiwan, the United States is suffering an economic crisis and has two distant wars to manage, drastically limiting its options for military involvement in East Asia.? Therefore the weapons proposal, notably lacking the original fighter planes and submarines of the Bush administration’s version, likely comes rather as a simple commitment to the requirements of the Taiwan Relations Act rather than a deliberate move by the United States to infiltrate Taiwan Strait politics.
Both China and the United States are loath to endanger the current bilateral status quo of peaceful, productive trade and mutual support.? Fan Jishe, who studies the US at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,?confirmed this in a recent?China Daily article. He predicted that because “the US needs China’s help on many aspects, including the Korean and Iranian nuclear issues,” it would seek to downplay the weapons deal and try to return the bilateral relationship to normal.
Meanwhile, Taiwan continues to build ties with mainland China.? In just the past week,Xinhua reported that there will be new?cross-Strait tourism offices established next month during the Spring Festival, and?that the First Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Forum opened on January 13.? Combined with the growth of cross-Strait flights, these suggest that the two are moving away from conflict, even if there is no concrete peace negotiation in the works.
Based on the past, we can expect that the weapons sale will pass peacefully, like those that came before it, and the current tension will deflate with time.? There is simply too much at stake for mainland China, the United States and Taiwan to allow this to throw them off track.
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Suzanne's hkfocus blog follows the developing story of Hong Kong's democracy movement as it struggles to maintain its coherence amid the growing pressures for full integration within the Chinese political system.
[CEG Commentary] U.S. weapons sale to Taiwan prompts bold display, limited effect on relations
By: Jason Kyriakides
On January 6, 2010, the United States issued a revised proposal to sell Patriot missiles to Taiwan that has been years in the making.? The proposal comes as part of the U.S. pledged responsibility to Taiwan under the?Taiwan Relations Act of April 10, 1978, and the?Joint Communiqué of August 17, 1982, which acknowledges that the United States will sell weapons to Taiwan with the eventual goal of ending weapons sales completely.
The proposal was originally made in October 2008 under the Bush administration for $6.5 billion in aircraft, weapons designs, submarines and other equipment – the largest American weapons sale ever to Taiwan.? A revised edition was announced in December 2009, notably removing the sale of aircraft and submarines at the request of the Chinese government.? This most recent revision on January 6 added a contract with Lockheed Martin Corporation to produce Patriot ballistic missiles for Taiwan.? The sale is scheduled to take place early this spring.
The updated proposal comes at a critical period in relations between mainland China, Taiwan and the United States.? Mainland China and Taiwan have been celebrating unparalleled closeness in relations – expanding business ties, tourism and cross-Strait travel – and recently closed a deal to expand the number of weekly cross-Strait commercial airline flights by 44, to nearly 350.? The United States has similarly been deepening ties with the mainland, seeking loans to help fund its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and aid in its economic recovery.
Because this political triangle is in such a key stage, the potential for the proposal to impact relations has been highlighted.? As the proposal developed in late December 2009 and early January 2010, the Chinese government warned the United States that selling weapons to Taiwan – which the mainland considers a breakaway province and not a legitimate independent state – would damage Sino-U.S. relations.
In response to the U.S. proposal, China’s Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry?issued statements nearly every day from January 5 to 11, stating that the proposal violated China’s “core interests and grave concerns,” and “harmed China’s sovereignty and security interests.”? Xinhua News backed the ministries with an editorial claiming that the United States was in violation of its promises in the three Joint Communiqués, and that the sale would endanger peace “at the moment that the cross-Straits relations have embarked on a path of peaceful development.”
Likely as a response to the proposal, China?successfully tested a missile-intercept system on January 11.? According to the Defense Ministry, the system is purely for defensive purposes in accordance with China’s ongoing strategy of defensive military development.? Still, the test was a significant tit-for-tat display of military power that lent power to China’s claim that it would not tolerate outside interference in its “core issues.”
Despite these strong words and flashy displays, this is a familiar story in Sino-U.S. relations.? Since 1995, when relations between mainland China, Taiwan and the United States reached a fevered pitch and U.S. aircraft carriers were deployed to the Taiwan Strait, China has been “operating very much at the psychological or political, rather than military, level of conflict.”? This is?according to The International Crisis Group, which has been studying relations in the Taiwan Strait and the prospects for peace since 2002.? The mainland realizes there is not an immediate danger of separation,?as supported by recent public opinion polls in Taiwan; at the same time, public pressure on the Chinese government to take a bolder stance internationally makes it domestically rewarding for the Chinese government to put on this kind of military display.
Furthermore, despite the continued sale of weapons to Taiwan, the United States is suffering an economic crisis and has two distant wars to manage, drastically limiting its options for military involvement in East Asia.? Therefore the weapons proposal, notably lacking the original fighter planes and submarines of the Bush administration’s version, likely comes rather as a simple commitment to the requirements of the Taiwan Relations Act rather than a deliberate move by the United States to infiltrate Taiwan Strait politics.
Both China and the United States are loath to endanger the current bilateral status quo of peaceful, productive trade and mutual support.? Fan Jishe, who studies the US at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,?confirmed this in a recent?China Daily article. He predicted that because “the US needs China’s help on many aspects, including the Korean and Iranian nuclear issues,” it would seek to downplay the weapons deal and try to return the bilateral relationship to normal.
Meanwhile, Taiwan continues to build ties with mainland China.? In just the past week,Xinhua reported that there will be new?cross-Strait tourism offices established next month during the Spring Festival, and?that the First Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Forum opened on January 13.? Combined with the growth of cross-Strait flights, these suggest that the two are moving away from conflict, even if there is no concrete peace negotiation in the works.
Based on the past, we can expect that the weapons sale will pass peacefully, like those that came before it, and the current tension will deflate with time.? There is simply too much at stake for mainland China, the United States and Taiwan to allow this to throw them off track.
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